It’s Time for a Reality Check (Article)

It’s Time for a Reality Check

We’re currently experiencing our fourth bear market since 2000, with the S&P 500 Index down just over 20% from its peak in early January. The previous 11 bear markets since World War II saw the S&P 500 Index fall on average 33%, with the worst, a decline of 58%, coming during the Great Recession of 2008-2009. The average recovery period, defined as the period of time from the market low to a new high, for the last 11 bear markets was 27 months. However, predicting when the next bull market will begin is tricky because it requires that you correctly anticipate how high interest rates will go, when inflation pressures abate, and the impact inflation will have on future corporate earnings. Our best advice is to not try to time the start point of the rebound. Instead focus on your timeline. If you have years before needing the cash to live on, stay diversified and ride it out.

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